Pandemic/Statistics
1 May 2020
Every day now comes with a new set of coronavirus data: numbers for positive tests, negative tests, deaths, patients hospitalized, ventilator shortfalls and hospital beds occupied. And, more rarely, the racial and ethnic breakdown of those who have tested positive, and those who have died.
These numbers enable epidemiologists, officials, journalists and the public around the world to track the evolution of Covid-19 in almost real time, making it the first “data-driven pandemic.” There’s a lot at stake in these numbers, and there’s a major problem: The data on which we are basing decisions is imperfect and incomplete.
Source: Bloomberg CityLab[1]
The Data-driven Pandemic
During 2020 the most reported statistics were the number of cases and the number of deaths, globally or by area. Television reporting is most dramatic if it is accompanied by disturbing video and that phenomenon made us all aware of the horrors in Italy, UK, Spain, Brazil, India and now Indonesia. Other countries with less video but significant suffering didn't get the same exposure on television. New York featured for a long while and deaths from the coronavirus there soared above the tragedy of 9/11. Around the world the death toll is still rising but the vaccines appear to have made a difference wherever they have been available. Vaccine rates per population are now available from most countries. A third set of statistics is much less prominent and relates to adverse events following vaccination. The people affected by the vaccines are a relatively small group who have difficulty being recognised. When the pandemic is over, when the mass vaccination program has achieved its' goal, there will be time to reflect on the cost both economically and personally. Those who have lost loved ones will grieve, those who survived may have lingering long-covid effects, and those few for whom vaccines caused grief or long-term effects may finally be heard. Data does not have emotions. Numbers do not tell stories. Statistics cannot quantify personal tragedy. Decisions may be guided by data, and historians will reflect on why various actions were taken or what the outcomes may have been if different scenarios had occurred. Objective analysis, whether now or in the future, will not help those whose lives were impacted at the front line. The pandemic is not data-driven - it is just a highly transmissible disease. However, this pandemic has occurred in a digital age and it has driven scientists, epidemiologists, politicians, commentators and others to seek data at an unprecedented level. So it is the public health response which should be data-driven.
Grant
July 2021
Statistics relating to the impact and spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the vaccination rollout, and some sources for adverse events, are listed below. Each heading is linked to a sub-page. Each sub-page lists several sources of relevant data and may include some information on how to access the data and how to interpret the data.
- Epidemiological Data
The World Health Organisation publishes Weekly Epidemiological Updates for the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), so the same terminology has been used in the heading for this section.
Other sources present coronavirus cases and deaths in graphs which show current numbers and trends at global, regional and country levels. - Vaccination Data
Several vaccines were approved for emergency use from late 2020 and the global roll-out accelerated through 2021. Some vaccines require two doses to achieve maximum efficacy. A few require only one dose. Some people may have decided not to get a second dose after their first. In some countries where the need for vaccines was low, like Australia, the roll-out started late. Other countries simply could not get vaccines due to cost or supply factors. - AEFI Data
AEFI is the acronym for Adverse Events Following Immunization. The term immunization has a wider meaning than vaccination but in the context of vaccines for Covid-19 the term used here is simply covid vaccine. Records of adverse events following immunisation are publicly accessible from online databases. Two are listed below. More sources may be added, but most countries should have a similar system so it will just be a matter searching for it.
- Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) (USA)
This article also includes links to the OpenVAERS website which is easier to use. - EudraVigilance (European Economic Area)
- Yellow Card Scheme (UK)
This article also links to the Weekly Summary of Yellow Card reporting; and an independent website for COVID-19 VACCINES YELLOW CARD ANALYSIS.
- Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) (USA)
- COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Deaths
If a person who is fully vaccinated subsequently develops serious illness as a result of infection by SARS-CoV-2 it is regarded as a breakthrough case. There is, as yet, no standard terminology for describing a death from COVID-19 following breakthrough. Data on COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough deaths is presented by country:-
Notes
- ↑ Bloomberg CityLab Coronavirus Data in the U.S. Is Terrible, and Here’s Why By Marie Patino, 1 May 2020
